Fitch Ratings has maintained Romania’s sovereign rating at BBB-/F3 for both long and short-term foreign currency debt, keeping a negative outlook, as announced by the Ministry of Finance. „Fitch’s choice, in light of challenging fiscal and budgetary circumstances, reinforces confidence in the Romanian Government’s measures and plans,” stated Minister Alexandru Nazare.
„The agency supports the reaffirmation of the sovereign rating through Romania’s EU membership and capital inflows from the EU that facilitate real income convergence and external funding, along with positive indicators for GDP per capita and governance, which surpass those of other countries within the same rating bracket (‘BBB’),” the Ministry of Public Finance elaborated in a press release issued Friday evening.
The document indicates that the negative outlook is a result of a notable decline in Romania’s public finances, marked by a significant fiscal deficit and a rapidly escalating public debt-to-GDP ratio.
- Fitch anticipates an economic growth of 0.7% in 2025 (similar to 2024) and a growth rate of approximately 1.2% in 2026 and 2027, bolstered by EU funds and the recovery of the eurozone economy.
- On the topic of public debt, Fitch estimates it will hit 55% of GDP by the close of 2025, 63.4% of GDP by 2027, and possibly reach 70% by 2029.
The strengths that have led to the continuation of the rating and outlook are counterbalanced by large and ongoing state budget and current account deficits, a swift rise in public debt, political division, and a relatively elevated level of external debt, the ministry noted.
„Fitch’s resolution, in a delicate fiscal and budgetary environment, affirms trust in the government’s commitments to fiscal consolidation with external stakeholders and the maintenance of public finance sustainability,” remarked Minister Alexandru Nazare.
„Preserving the investment grade rating is vital for Romania amidst substantial fiscal and budget challenges. This rating has a direct impact on financing costs within domestic and international markets, as well as on investors’ willingness to acquire Romanian government bonds,” highlighted the Ministry of Public Finance.
